Predictions for Authors, Publishers and Books for 2011

I was literally cursed at in social media in January of 2010 for my predictions regarding eBooks, agents, publishers and authors.  If anything, my predictions didn’t go far enough.

So what do I see ahead in 2011?

A major fiction author breaking from traditional publishing and putting a book out on their own via eBook.  David Morrell, who I consider a major author, already did this in 2010, but not many noticed.  Seth Godin did it in non-fiction.  But when someone big-big splits, it will make traditional publishers tremble.

The 25% royalty rate for e-rights is ridiculous and has to go.  40% is the minimum.  Even then, do the math:

• $9.99 eBook.  Publisher gets $6.99.  Author at 25% gets $1.75
• $9.99 eBook.  Publisher gets $6.99.  Author at 40% gets $2.79
• $9.99 eBook.  Author goes it alone.  Author gets $6.99

So even at 40% royalty the traditional publisher has to sell 2.5 times as many copies as the author doing it alone.  And what exactly does the publisher do for that money now?  Not distribution.  Placement, if they pay.  Copy-editing, which can be outsourced by the independent author.  A ‘stamp’ of approval.  But if it’s a brand name author, that doesn’t matter.  No one goes into a book store and says, “gimme a Random House”.  They do go in and say “gimme a Nora Roberts.”

Many agencies are going to try to straddle a very difficult line of selling to traditional publishing while also bringing books out on their own, particularly their authors’ backlist and promising books they can’t place with a traditional house but they see value in.  The conflict of interest will put them in a tough spot.  It’s going to be a black or white situation:  either become your own publishing house or stay traditional.  I actually predict that there will be some mergers between publishers and agents, where the line between the two will blur.  The reality is that agents are 90% of the gatekeeping of quality control in publishing.  Publisher held the lock on distribution.  Their lock is over.  Once the 50% tipping point is reached (and my #1 prediction is it will be reached in 2011) where more eBooks are bought than print books, the whole ball game is going to change. B&N.com has just announced they sell more eBooks than print books.

Enhanced eBooks will begin to multiply.  Enhanced in various ways:

Links to more information.  For example, in Touched With Fire: West Point To Shiloh, my next book, you’ll be able to click on a hyperlink to find out more information about, say, Ulysses S. Grant and his ability as a horse-whisperer.

Embedded video and music, although the reality is, only the iPad really supports this now.  One thing I do believe will be constant is that mixing media doesn’t work well.  This is why film trailers for books are pretty much a waste of money for 99.5% of authors who do them. Unless you can do something like Jane Austin’s Fight club, but hits to a Youtube video clip does not equate to the same number in sales, but it does create a bit of buzz.

Alternate versions of books and additional material, including ‘author cuts’.  Much like you can get the director’s cut of a DVD, authors will be able to include material that would have ended up on the floor of their editor’s office.  Also, they could give two or more different endings to a book.  They can also add in comments about the writing of the book, much like Baldacci has already done.

More ‘shorts’ on specific non-fiction topics.  This is our #1 focus at Who Dares Wins Publishing for 2011. Priced at $2.99 (less than a cup of coffee at Starbucks) and at least 10,000 words long, these will non-fiction works that address something the reader specifically wants answered.  For example, one of our first ones will be How To Get The Most Out Of Your Time and Money at a Writer’s Conference.  It will describe how to find, prepare for, spend your time at, and reap the benefits after a conference.  For someone who is going to plunk down a $400 registration fee plus travel, plus hotel, and most importantly time, for a writer’s conference, it really makes sense to spend $2.99 for advice on to make the most of it all.

2010 was an unstable year. Publishing began reacting to changes, when they should have been acting in years prior (a tenet of Warrior Writer). We saw publishers create vanity presses. We saw agents become publishers. Authors started skipping publishers all together. We saw a pillar in mass market got direct to digital. We’ve seen agents close doors. We hear smaller advances, higher sell-through rate, and more authors being dropped. We saw Amazon cut a major publisher out of the picture. In a nutshell, publishing is being forced to changed and while they fight the publishing borg, many of us are embracing it. We’re acting and taking control of our careers. We are assimilating to the future because the future is here.

2010 brought the digital book and eReaders to an equal playing field, whether NY wants to face it or not. You can’t get on an airplane in today’s world and not see some sort of reading device and it’s not just the younger generation using these devices. We’re all using them. The Nook, The Kindle and The iPad are here to stay. Add Wi-Fi and 3G capabilities and the reduced pricing 2010 has also brought, there isn’t any reason not to embrace the technology, as we did with computers, laptops and cell phones.

2011 is going to continue on this road. There are more forks now than ever before, each leading to a new and exciting, though sometimes scary opportunity.  It is the year of the Author which is why we Write It Forward, beginning with our first workshop starting 3 January, with a new way to look at Selling Your Book.  For too long writers have focused on getting and agent, a book contract, etc. etc. but ultimately, what you really want are readers to buy your books, not agents and publishers.  It’s a new paradigm that few are taking the lead in.

2011 is going to be a great year for writers willing to look to the future.

Write It Forward!